Network traffic trends are a moving target. So how do companies that care about this kind of thing get a handle on where things are, and where they are going?
Well, Mobile Experts is one company that follows this kind of thing. It tracks mobile traffic density and uses that to predict the timing and use of small cells.
And last week it explained how it forecast the number of small cell shipments with such accuracy in 2016. (Its forecast was within 4 percent of the actual outcome.)
“Benchmarking with leading LTE (News - Alert) operators has proven over the years that when mobile operators reach a level of 0.02 GkM, the economics of small cells become more attractive than macro sites for added capacity,” the firm says. “Mobile Experts has found this to be an extremely accurate way to predict small cell deployment timing.”
Chief Analyst Joe Madden of Mobile Experts says mobile video is driving big change. But he adds that “Traffic will continue to rise, but the density of traffic will slow down, as CBRS and LAA bands come into play. We’re also starting to see the network conditions which will drive the operators toward Massive MIMO and 5G at density levels, adding more LTE bandwidth and reducing traffic density per MHz.”
He adds that m-MIMO will support density five times that of its current level.
"In real-world networks, there's plenty of room for growth,” Madden continues. “Most major networks are anticipating about 50-100 MHz of new spectrum at 3.5 to 4.5 GHz. And many countries have plans for wider blocks above 20 GHz. Seoul is a good example. Korea has some of the densest networks in the world, and will be pushing the envelope of LTE saturation in 2019. The addition of 3.5 GHz and 28 GHz spectrum will dramatically reduce density of traffic, improving their network quality."
Edited by
Maurice Nagle
